Global financial crisis

[sunny]

IMF: Oil boosted rebound for Mideast, North Africa

CAIRO - The International Monetary Fund says the Middle East and North Africa region is recovering strongly following the global financial meltdown, with sizable stimulus packages and continued strength in oil prices supporting the rebound.

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook released Wednesday that the MENA region's GDP growth is projected to be 4.1 per cent this year and 5.1 per cent in 2011. GDP growth for the region was 2 per cent in 2009.

The sustained rebound in oil prices since 2009 has benefited Mideast oil exporters, as well as oil importers that sell about 25 per cent of their products to those nations. But the IMF said uncertainties remain, linked to the volatility in the overall global economic recovery.

[sunny]

IMF warns against currency war
By Steven C. Johnson

(Reuters) - Global policymakers clashed over currency policies on Wednesday as Western leaders warned China and other emerging markets that widespread efforts to weaken exchange rates threatens to derail economic recovery.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said countries with large trade surpluses must let their currencies rise lest they trigger a devastating round of competitive devaluations.

"When large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep the currency from appreciating, that encourages other countries to do the same," Geithner said in a speech ahead of this weekend's semi-annual international Monetary Fund meeting.

Officials around the world fear such a race to the bottom may trigger trade tariffs and other measures that could damage global economic growth.

Using exchange rates "as a policy weapon" to undercut other economies and boost a country's own exporters "would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in Wednesday's edition of the Financial Times.

But China, which the West accuses of keeping the yuan artificially weak to promote exports, has rebuffed such calls. On Wednesday, Premier Wen Jiabao told the European Union to stop piling pressure on Beijing to revalue the yuan, saying a rapid exchange rate shift could unleash disastrous social turmoil in China.

""Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages," Wen said during a visit to Brussels. "If China saw social and economic turbulence, then it would be a disaster for the world."

RACE TO THE BOTTOM

Low interest rates in Europe and Japan and expectation that the Federal Reserve will launch another round of money printing that could weaken the dollar have pushed currencies to the top of the agenda at the IMF meeting and at Friday's gathering of finance leaders from the Group of 20 economies.

Despite disagreement among governments, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said he was "optimistic" about a solution. "We are just at the beginning of the process, so it's much too early to declare it a failure."

Others, however, are less sure.

Brendan Brown, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International, said the IMF, which has the United States as its biggest stakeholder, would not try to prevent further U.S. monetary easing or a weaker dollar.

"That Washington institution has failed in its central mission to prevent currency war," he wrote in a report.

The U.S. dollar tumbled to another 8-1/2-month low against major currencies Wednesday in anticipation of more Federal Reserve monetary easing, pushing the yen to a fresh 15-year high.

A strengthening yen prompted Japan to sell yen in currency markets last month, its first intervention since 2004, and several emerging market countries have followed suit or are threatening to.

Brazil fired the latest shot this week in what its finance minister dubbed an "international currency war," doubling a tax on foreign investors buying local bonds to 4.0 percent to curb its strong currency.

HOT MONEY

Some assigned blame to developed country policies, particularly the Fed's loose monetary policy, which has brought instability to exchange rates and forced countries such as Japan and Brazil to defend their exporters.

"It's doing nothing for the American economy, but it's causing chaos over the rest of the world. It's a very strange policy that they are pursuing," Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz said of U.S. policy.

Policymakers have highlighted the issue of global imbalances for years, with fundamental problems seen as the dollar's global dominance, China's overvalued yuan and Germany's lack of domestic consumption.

The IMF said Wednesday that emerging economies were set to grow nearly three times as fast than rich nations next year, with China the main engine of growth.

But emerging nations say the massive cash flows associated with this growth have damaged their exports, particularly

as major economies try to restrain their own currencies' levels.

South Korea warned investors it might impose further limits on forward trading and India and Thailand said they were looking at steps to control speculative surges.

"It's natural in that context for them to say -- we can't just let our exchange rates appreciate and destroy our exports," Stiglitz told reporters at Columbia University on Tuesday.

Markets, however, think Fed easing is more likely than ever. That point of view was boosted by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who was quoted as saying the central bank should do much more to spur the economy.

And in a surprise move this week, Japan pulled interest rates on the yen back to zero and pledged to pump more funds into an economy struggling to compete with the currency near a 15-year high against the dollar. Brazil to defend their exporters.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaus around the world; editing by )

[sunny]

IMF revises U.S. growth down, jobs picture bleak

(Reuters) - U.S. economic growth will be much weaker this year and in 2011 than previously thought and that dims hopes for bringing down a very high unemployment rate anytime soon, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

In a sober assessment of the U.S. outlook, the IMF pulled down its estimate for 2010 growth to 2.6 percent from the 3.3 percent it published in July and said gross domestic product or GDP will expand 2.3 percent in 2011 instead of 2.9 percent.

"The most likely prospect for the U.S. economy is for a continued but slow recovery, with growth far weaker than in previous recoveries, considering the depth of the recession," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook published ahead of weekend semi-annual meetings of it and the World Bank.

The IMF said the main reason the U.S. recovery is so weak is that consumer spending is sluggish and suggests it is little wonder that is the case. Falling home prices have reduced household wealth, 9.6 percent of the workforce is unemployed, banks won't lend and people are scared into saving.

It says the gap between actual and potential economic output will be a lingering drag on the pace of recovery.

"The unemployment rate is therefore expected to remain stubbornly high," it warns, which further hinders consumption spending that is the largest component of U.S. GDP.

"Risks to the outlook remain elevated and are tilted to the downside," the IMF said, noting that real estate markets are "still fragile" and soaring government debt has created worry in financial markets.

It says the government must lay the groundwork in 2011 for fiscal consolidation to reduce its indebtedness. The IMF said the Obama administration had set the right direction in its mid-session economic review by proposing fiscal tightening of about 1 percent of GDP.

The IMF said there was "a tail risk of deflation" arising from soft consumer prices, weak labor markets and consumers' increased wish to save instead of spend.

Nonetheless, it urged that the Federal Reserve maintain its policy of very low interest rates to try to spur subpar growth and to offset lingering financial strains.

The U.S. central bank has held overnight interest rates at nearly zero for close to two years and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted this week that it could resume asset purchases to inject more liquidity into the economy in hope of priming more lending by banks to speed up recovery.

In contrast with the United States, neighboring Canada's economy remains "relatively buoyant" with both household balance sheets and banks in good shape, the IMF said.

The main concerns for Canada are external ones, arising from the possibility of lower commodity prices, mainly for oil and minerals, and the risk that the United States, its key export market, could slow down more than anticipated, the IMF said.

(Reporting by Glenn Somerville; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

[sunny]

Fear factor driving gold higher

“Gold is not an investment. It doesn’t pay you interest and it doesn’t increase wealth,” complained one investment advisor recently as he perused exploding client demand for the yellow metal.

“It’s just a cautious asset for scared investors,” he grumbled as he waved a chart showing prices had once again hit an all-time high.

Some anecdotal evidence suggests he may have a point.

Bankers at this week’s Reuters Private Banking Summit said investors were loading up on gold to the tune of some 7 to 10 percent of their portfolios.

The traditional motive of hedging against inflation was conspicuous by its absence.

The wealthy were buying gold because they were worried by the possibility of deflation, by a collapsing dollar or by the threat of prolonged financial turmoil.

Many were getting exposure through gold-backed exchange traded funds or gold stocks related stocks.

And one couple even bought a tonne of the stuff and drove off with it.

“If we did have a global financial meltdown, what do these people think they could actually do with the gold,” said the investment advisor.

As for the pair with a tonne of gold — worth well over $40 million at current prices — let’s hope they hid it somewhere safe.

[DeathPower]

Asian Economies Struggle With Capital Flows, Finance Leaders Warn of 'Currency War'

Asian governments are struggling to manage strong capital flows that could threaten their economies. But international finance leaders worry such efforts may destabilize the global financial system.

As the yen neared a 15-year high against the dollar Friday, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Japan will continue to watch for "excessive" moves in the exchange rate and will take necessary action.

Japan's central bank recently has stepped into the markets to weaken the yen. A strong yen hurts exports, which are crucial to the country's economic recovery.

But international finance leaders fear market interventions could trigger a cascade of similar actions by other central banks, leading to a "currency war."

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss Kahn warned Thursday against using currencies as "weapons" to gain trade advantages.

In the past, Asian central banks aggressively managed their currencies. Over the past decade, they did significantly less management, but in recent weeks, currency traders say there have been new signs of intervention.

Song Seng-Wun, chief economist of the bank CIMB in Singapore, says Asian central banks are not trying to stop their currencies from rising. Instead, they are managing the appreciation so it will not be too disruptive to their economies.

"They're just moderating it to make it less destructive and for businesses, more predictable," said Song Seng-Wun. "Because if you allow it to move too fast, it makes planning very difficult, if not impossible."

However, the region's largest economy, China, tightly controls its currency, the yuan. China's trading partners want the yuan to appreciate by 30 percent or more to correct what they say is an undervalued currency. Beijing argues doing so would force many Chinese manufacturers to shut down.

Some economists say Asian central bankers are less worried about export competitiveness than about the dangers of strong capital inflows.

Song says the weak economies in the U.S. and Europe have led investors to move money to more profitable markets in Asia's fast-growing economies. That pushes up prices, including the value of Asian currencies.

In recent days, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit hit 13-year highs against the dollar. The Korean won rose to a five-month high, while the Indonesian rupiah neared three-year high.

"It's like the globe is one big tray of water and the flow is going from the side, which is being held up toward the other side, which is Asia," said Song. "So governments are trying to balance trade a little bit, rather than letting the money flowing through make the exchange rate go up very fast, which in turn could attract even more [money]."

The problem with that foreign capital can flow out very quickly in a crisis.

In the mid-1990s, Asia saw large inflows of capital, which was quickly pulled out when economies weakened in 1997. That led to a rapid depreciation of currencies despite intense market intervention by central bankers. The resulting economic crisis led to severe recession and thousands of failed businesses across the region.

Shin Jang-sup is an economics professor at the National University of Singapore and previously was an adviser to the South Korean Ministry of Finance. He says Asian central bankers face a more serious problem today than in 1997.

"Their interest rates are historically low, and if they lower their interest rates further they face inflationary pressure," said Shin Jang-sup. "So it's very difficult. Also, after the Asian financial crisis, they carried out various market reforms to facilitate international flows of capital, so it's very difficult to re-introduce some form of capital control. Also the amount of money is much larger than before."

The International Institute of Finance says $825 billion in capital will flow to emerging markets this year, while the Asian Development Bank says more than $200 billion stayed in Asia last year.

On Thursday in Washington, the IMF's Strauss-Kahn said while capital flows are important to global development, he recognizes the dilemma countries face.

"In the short term, we may not be able to have a revaluation of a currency enough to mitigate the effect of the capital flow," he said. "Then you have prudential action that can be taken. Also, you can accumulate reserves and at the end, as we say for months now, we can understand that some element of capital controls can be put in place."

Given its complexity, Strauss-Kahn says, the best way to address the issue is through cooperation among the Group of 20 nations.

In 1985, Japan, the United States, Germany and Britain signed the Plaza Accord, and allowed the dollar to weaken to help Washington narrow its trade deficit and recover from a severe recession.

Whether a similar international agreement can be cobbled together is among the topics international finance leaders are expected to discuss this week in Washington at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Government leaders are likely to also take up the issue at the G20 summit in Seoul next month.

[sunny]

Global financial crisis has contributed to $4.1 billion deficit in UN budgets this year

The global financial crisis has contributed to a $4.1 billion deficit in U.N. budgets this year and the United States owes $1.2 billion, the U.N. management chief said Thursday.

Angela Kane, the undersecretary-general for management, said many of the 192 U.N. member states have had "to tighten their belts" because of the economic meltdown, though some delays in payment are due to differences in the timing of national budget authorizations.

The deficit includes money owed to the U.N.'s regular operating budget as well as its separate budgets for the world body's far-flung peacekeeping operations, its tribunals and the renovation of the U.N. headquarters complex in New York.

Of the $4.1 billion owed by member states, Kane said $3.2 billion is owed to the peacekeeping budget.

According to the U.N., Japan owes $654 million for peacekeeping operations, the U.S. owes $431 million, Britain $307 million, Spain $293 million, France $194 million, Ukraine $140 million, South Korea $139 million, Italy $129 million and Greece $102 million.

The United States also owes $691 million to the 2010 regular budget, $34 million for tribunals and $75 million for the U.N.'s Capital Master Plan renovations.

Asked about the U.S. arrears, U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice replied "we have been paying in full and on time" but she said "there is a history of contested arrears, and there is always a timing issue given when our fiscal year ends and the U.N. fiscal year ends." The U.S. fiscal year ends on Sept. 30 while the U.N. fiscal year ends on Dec. 31.

Kane praised 13 countries that have paid their assessments for all U.N. activities in full — Australia, Azerbaijan, Canada, Congo, Denmark, Germany, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, South Africa and Tanzania.

[MI-6]

เร็วๆ นี้ มีข่าวเล็กๆ ชิ้นหนึ่งว่า จอร์จ โซรอส บริจาคเงินให้องค์กรสิทธิมนุษยชน Human Right Watch
หนึ่งร้อยล้าน ดอลล่าร์สหรัฐ

ดูประหนึ่งว่าจะคำนึงถึงสิทธิ เสรีภาพของคนทั้งโลกอย่างมาก

คงเป็นตัวอย่างหนึ่งของ การพูดอย่างทำอย่างก็ได้ เพราะในขณะที่เขาแสดงอาการห่วงใยคนด้อยโอกาส
เขาก็กลับเป็นตัวการ เป็นเครื่องมือชิ้นหนึ่งในการ ทำให้คนปกติ กลายเป็นคนด้อยโอกาสในที่สุด ด้วยการโจมตีค่าเงิน ในประเทศที่สภาพเศรษฐกิจขนาดเล็กกว่า ขาดคนในการบริหารประเทศ(คือมีก็เหมือนไม่มี) และไม่มีจุดแข็งในการปกป้องตัวเอง ด้วยการทำอะไรทุกอย่างตามกระแสโลก โดยไม่คำนึงถึงบทสรุปของเรื่อง

เช่น เมื่อเงินแข็งค่า คนก็จะโหมกันไปทำสิ่งเดียวกันคือ นำเข้าสิ่นค้า ยิ่งมากยิ่งดี แล้วก็ทำสัญญาประกันค่าเงินไว้ แต่อย่าลืมว่า ธนาคารจะรับประกันเพียง ๖ เดือนเท่านั้น จากนั้นก็ต้องเป็นภาวะจริงๆ ในขณะนั้น การที่เขาจะทุบค่าเงิน ก็คือ ทำการวางเหยื่อให้ปลาฮุบ จากนั้นเมื่อกินเข้าไปจนลึก ก็จะกระตุกเบ็ด ก็จะได้กินปลาตัวนั้น

ดังนั้น เมื่อคนคิดเหมือนกัน ทำการนำเข้ามากๆ ภาระการชำระหนี้สกุลเงินต่างประเทศก้จะมากขึ้นโดยลำดับ จนที่สุดเมื่อเขาโจมตีค่าเงิน เราก็ต้องลดค่าเงินลงมา เมื่อมีการลดค่าเงิน ผู้นำเข้าที่เก็งกำไรไว้ก็ไม่สามารถชำระคืนหนี้ได้ กลายเป็นหนี้เน่า ธนาคารจะต้องรับภาระแทน (กรณีทำ L/C หรือ รับประกันไว้ในรูปแบบ L/G) หนักเข้า ธนาคารก็รับไม่ไหว หรือจะเรียกกับลูกหนี้ ๆ ก็ไม่มีปัญญาชำระ เพราะค่าเงินมันลดมากๆ ดังกรณีที่เกิดในปี 2540 เรื่องมันก็เกิดจากการคิดไปทางเดียวกัน นั่นเอง

ทางป้องกันก็คือ ทุกคนอย่าไปเห็นแก่ได้ระยะสั้น แต่ควรทำอะไรด้วยความระมัดระวัง และไม่เก็งกำไร ซื้อเท่าที่จำเป็น ลงทุนตามกำลัง อย่าไปคิดว่า ต้นทุนการเงินต่ำก็ขอฉวยโอกาสไว้ก่อน หากไม่มีผลกำไรที่แท้จริง หรือ ประเมินโครงการแล้วว่ามันคืนทุนไม่ได้เร็ว หรือทำกำไรยาก ก็อย่าไปลงทุนเลย

ที่เจ๊งกันก็เพราะว่าขอเอาได้แต่เฉพาะหน้าไว้ก่อน อนาคตว่ากันอีกทีนั่นเอง

[MI-6]

แล้วยิ่ง รมต ดูแลการเงินของเรา ยังอภิรมย์ กับบทละครเรื่องวนิดา โหนกระแส เรื่อง การทวงหนี้แบบมีศีลธรรม อยู่อย่างนี้ ค่าเงินบาทก็คงต้องช่วยตัวเอง ไปพลางๆ

ในเวลาที่ลูกหนี้ล้มจากผลกระทบเรื่องค่าเงินบาทบาท ก็อย่าลืมบอกให้ธนาคาร ช่วยมีศีลธรรมในการทวงหนี้ แบบในละครด้วย

[sunny]

ตายแล้ว... ไหงกลายเป็น "คนหลังเขา" ได้ล่ะ เรา

อยากบอกว่าเมื่อวานตอนโทรมา ที่ขำไม่ออกเพราะไม่รู้เรื่องเลย

เฮ้อ...